I tried to compare the reported results from Green Valley Pharma drug GV-971. I did discuss it two posts before. Any meaningful data was presented in ADAS-Cog 12 improvement of 2.54 over placebo. This scale is 70 points with the healthy starting at 5 points and the deterioration is monitored by adding 65 more points till the scale reaches its limit. This is an inverted scale to MMSE (just 30 points altogether), both measure cognition. It is impossible to express the relation between two by a ratio since there are tests giving varying weights to different cognitive components. From a quick search on internet, I found out that in one subject the ADAS-Cog score of 18 corresponded with MMSE 23. I chose this to be my point of departure and I expressed the change as a line with a slope connecting the score at 36 week with the score at the base. Of course, this is a gross simplification as I suppose the correlation between both is nonlinear. With that assumtion, I created this chart to gain insight into the relative performance of placebo, Blarcamesine, and GV-971. When you look at the chart you have to remember that increasing score means deterioration, not an improvement.

Two horizontal lines show the ADAS-Cog 12 score and corresponding MMSE scores. The thick red line is the deterioration for those on placebo, derived from MMSE scores by multiplying by a factor of 2.16, (the ratio). The thin black line is the performance of Blaracamesine also derived from MMSE sores and adjusted to the timeline of 36 weeks. And finally, the red thin line is the GV-971. The difference between the placebo cohort at 36 weeks was 2.54 points so this how I constructed the line.

It is obvious that GV-971 does impedes the progress of the disease. I wonder how different GV-971 is from BIIB037. Before I finish this I want to point out that the performance of Blarcamesine is taken from the High Concentration Cohort which was not subject to selection with the genetic markers for response to the drug. In other words, this is the response in the general population so the comparison is more on the leveled playing field.

Let’s get crazy and extrapolate into the distant future. 312 weeks is 6 years.

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