Four billion years of evolution is against my judgment so do not trade on it.

Data

Three main markets for $TSLA are the US, Europe, and China. See the graph for the number of cars sold in these markets per month. Data for China since January 2019 only.

Model 3 was introduced in 2018 and in Europe and China has not been sold till about March 2019.  Now, let’s see the sum of all models sold in the main markets.

The equation of the line fitted to the data is bearly rising.  y=14.90*x + 28350.

If we assume that a quarter consists of three months with the number of cars defined by a point on the line, then we can estimate the future quarter sales based on simple extrapolation into the future.  Since this is an extrapolation of line fitting a set of data points for any 3 months the middle point is the quarter estimate.

The USA

The decline of sales in the USA accelerated after April 2019 so the trendline is based on this period.

 

It is obvious that since about March 2019 the sales entered into definitive decline.  y=-796*x+19420.

Europe.

The trendline suggests

 

rising sales. y=325*x + 7050.

 

China.

The trendline suggests declining sales. y=-172*x + 4610.

 

The sum of all main markets extrapolated from trends documented until October 2019 for the next 14 months.

This suggests that the sales keeping with trends would be about 70% of current sales barring any sudden event after 14 months that is Q4 2020.

This never happens.