You should not trade this blog as 4 billion years of evolution is against my judgment.
Give a guy a computer and ability to make colorful pictures and graphs and he sure is going to commit a crime against reason. This is a prime example.
I used some sources to make educated guesses to the number of all models of $TSLA car sold in the 3 major markets; the US, EU, and China.
From data on one place in Colorado ( have a history for good correlation to months numbers) I estimated all models in the US and multiply by 2.24 the number of avg 2 months in the quarter in order to account for those fabulous surges in sales at the end of the quarter, especially this one. So that is how I got Oct 19, Nov 19 and Dec 19.
I kept China months numbers steady for Nov 19 (comparing to know Oct 19) and applied scaling for the last month of the quarter (1.61 multiplier).
Europe was a bit more complicated. I have data for NL, NO, and SP, (Oct, Nov 19 (till 25th)), but I looked at the patterns in other quarters for the ratio between these countries and the missing rest of Europe. so the average of 2 front months was multiplied by 3.44 to get Dec 19. The number from Oct 19 was scaled by 1.55 from know deliveries to NL to give an estimate for Nov 19.
Since I am not that bright I just press a few keys and this is a plot of global demand all models of $TSLA cars by 3 main markets.
I am also lazy so I pressed another button and I got this trendline (second-degree polynomial) for all models demand 3 main markets.
I only pressed buttons, blame Gig Oil. It seems that the trend is right here and $TSLA’s demand is starting in even very continuous fashion declining (as smoothed over quarter’s 3 months). The information is in the monthly data. I want to find out what the final numbers for the Q4 2019 are to update.
The clues point to the descending trend in global demand. All markets seem to be poised to roll over. Crucial to this being true are the numbers for the last month of Q4 2019. Each market peaked and then started rolling over after going organic. The trendline equation parameters are given their current values by the weight of a sudden drop in the last 3 months. If my estimates are off than we probably have to stay content with steady demand or even rising, but that would imply going from the bottomless pit to blue heaven.
There is a sudden drop in the world number for Oct 2019. A similar situation was seen in Q1 2019 with demand in the US. The explanation was that tax breaks and the backlog of backorders were exhausted or ended. $TSLAQ has begun to appreciate the resourcefulness of Elon Musk in “keeping up appearances”, both in accounting and demand. So I heard voices claiming that the Oct, Nov 2019 drop is a “honey trap” for the shorts. Having lived once in a dictatorship of the proletariat reading between the lines can save you a lot of grief. There is the expectation of disappointment when Elon conjures up ~70,000 cars sold in Dec 2019. Mr. Musk sealed all leaks and is baiting potential longs with numbers, both in the accounting of his business and the future orders of the already notorious #Cybertruck.
Model 3 has died (dying a slow death), long live Model Y. Oh! Wait it is a reincarnation of Model 3. If indeed the numbers for reservation are in tens of thousands then #Cybertruck has been sorely needed. $TSLA Q3 2019 results and the reservation numbers for Cybertruck seems sounding like a Wall Street’s siren song to Longs and a $TSLA’s swan song to $TSLAQ. Let’s see how the snowfall in the US affected global sales.
$TSLAQ community had many more clues on production and sales. Now, it seems that the expectations for the quick demise of $TSLA have subsided the information has been a bit sparse. That is why the clues and the methods rely on correlations from previous quarters. Are they false? I don’t know till it will be too late to explain to anybody how Elon Musked my numbers. In this way, Elon will disgrace another Short.
By my reckoning, only God knows things and we all are kept in the dark. Since I am humble enough to celebrate my ignorance I think I shall be rewarded. Please, spare me standing on the street corner and begging.
Sincerely yours, Beer Fund
$1.00 is about one bottle so .....please contribute..