Do not trade on this information since 4 billion years of evolution, and possibly God is against my judgment!
I stole data on $TSLA Model 3 registration from @PlainSite (Twitter).
— PlainSite (@PlainSite) March 2, 2020
I created two metrics to describe the demand situation in NY. The first is “Organic Demand”. I know that this is a lame idea but for a lack of a better one, I assumed that at my level of intelligence it suffices. The idea goes that the “Organic Demand” can be measured by the 2 front months of the quarter, and it is relative to other quarters and the final 3rd month of the quarter. The ratio of 3rd Month to 2 Front Months I called “Sales Effort”.
The Q4 of 2018 is the last Q when $TSLA was filling preorders. The green bar for 2 Front Months is larger than for 3rd Month (Yellow). This is the yardstick of “Full Demand”. The other special case is the seasonal pattern for Q1 of 2019 and Q1 2020. Since there is no data for March 2020 (3rd month) I assumed that 473 Model 3 just like in Q1 2019 are registered, and hinting at 18% larger “Sales Effort” than of Q1 2019.
- The trend for “Organic Demand” is down.
- The trend for “Sales Effort” is up.
- The trend for the 3rd Month is more or less flat.
Notice that “Sales Effort” in Q3 2019 is as slightly larger than in Q1 2019, the collapse of demand after year-end and fulfilling preorders.
This graph can be validated or disproved by the March 2020 data.
From the registration data in New York, one can see numbers hinting at the depletion of organic demand and the increasing efforts of the company to keep the sales numbers steady (NO GROWTH!).
Thank you, @PlainSite! I am just a draftsman.