Do not trade this blog as 4 billion years of evolution is against me and possibly even God laughs at it, He has a great sense of humor!
Stock Markets Reaction Is ……..
There are two very basic reactions from stock market participants. A kee-jerk one where everybody buys in the rush of enthusiasm and damned be the price. “I just want to get hold of it at any price”. And the measured one where the price and acquisition are weighted against each other as the market digests the pros and cons slowly.
It is very hard to predict the extend of knee-jerk reaction. This is kind of the “madness of the crowd” moment. I am not going to predict either one, but I am going to provide information helping to digest the incoming information with background of results from the most advanced player in the field.
Let’s jump to it.
$AVXL has conducted trial of its drug Anavex2-73 later known as Blarcamesine to assess dosage and explore efficacy. The trial initially involved 32 patients, in three years this number dwindled to 21 patients. The illustartion divides the patients into the groups or classes based on MMSE scores, SIGMAR1 receptor and APOE mutations. The plot y-axis is in ADCS-Activities of Daily Living (78 points scale) and it follows the patients over period of almost 3 years (148 weeks). The numbers represent the improvement from baseline. Out of cohort of 8 people, with 75% carriers of APOE4, two without APOE4 (carriers of APOE3) responded very abruptly in just 5 weeks with jump of 6.5 points (9.3% improvement over base of 70 points) 
Conclusions on Efficacy Paterns
- The only take way point can be that a drug with efficacy against AD should make a very steep and quick recovery possible in just few weeks if they are to hold this patients steady.
- A second conclusion is that if it did not do that, after two years it should only slow the progression of the disease as it happend when the APOE4 patients were added to the mix.
Nota bene, in the population of Alzheimer’s sick the Group1 should include from 50% to 40% of patients.
If these two patterns are worth anything and we intend to view the other palyers through this lense tthen…
It shows the pattern number 1, to verify this see the Press releases from $ANVS. links: https://irpages2.eqs.com/websites/annovis/English/431010/us-press-release.html?airportNewsID=364451b1-06a7-4b96-a389-016f3ef3e6e3 ;
As the picture conveys thousand words so the language improvent does. I would say that $CRTX displays the pattern number 1.
The improvement of -1.6 ADCS-Cog points over 6 months breaks away with the pattern number 1. We need to view more data from $SAVA to say anything conclusive. Nevertheless, $SAVA has been touted as the first company achieving something more than lowering or delaying the deterioration. The record does not corroborated this assertion.
It is actually $AVXL and $CRTX which are in head to head competition. At this point $SAVA is a PR darling. It has been reported that $ANVS drug might be involved in treating the infections such as P. gingivalis giving a competition to $CRTX. In the conclusion I can only say that $AVXL,$ANVS and $CRTX share similar pattern of responces in phase2. $SAVA is the odd man out, but that is not saying that it is better than former three. It will be very interesting to read data from $SAVA.
What $SAVA has going on for it is that its phase 2b dosed size cohort is ~50 patients with first reading of interim results and kind of serves as surrogate for phase 3.
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