In Search of Therapeutic Effect Patterns In Simufilam, Blarcamesine and Approximation of Placebo. $SAVA $AVXL

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Plotting Δ ΜΜSE or Δ ADAS-Cog11 or Just Changes in Cognition for Each Patient

I came with an idea to plot in a given trial all the cognition changes from the highest score to the lowest. On a spreadsheet I arranged patients in this order with their corressponding cognition deltas scores. When you see a patient number on x-axis then you check the y-axis for his cognition score delta.

I was looking to get hold of some sort detailed data on placebo arm. I realized that I can use the CTAD Presentation detailed data on cognition loss from Phase2a Low and Mid Concentration Cohorts as approximation of real PLACEBO data. There was no therapeutic effect detected in those two cohorts.

I disregarded the Patient 1009 a a fluke. I got this plot.

There is a trend line which is a straith line with R2 equall to .9805 and line equation ΔΜΜSE=-.5963*Patient#+.7904. Isn’t it amazing? My reading data off the chart or illustration with ruler introduces errors but the relationship between the ΔΜΜSE from patient to patient is remarkable.

Then I have repeated the procedure for Simufilam, respectivaly reading from the chart below and plotting Δ ADAS-Cog11 and converted Δ MMSE points. Even with the introduction of errors at each step, the relationship holds.

There is interesting relationship between The Simufilam plot (Δ MMSE) and Approximation of Placebo. If you take the Placebo plot line function and multiply the slope by 2 (2*.5963 = ~ .1208 for Simufilam) which is equivalent to rotating the slope counterclockwise, and then add 3.0978 to .7904, which is equivalent to moving the line up on the graph. These transformations make one line into another. Very interesting.

This makes for very strange therapeutic effect, as those at lower cognition score are so proportionately moved up by rotation and translation that the relationship holds for them perfectly. Indeed, amazing!

Using the illustration with detailed data from phase 2a Blarcamisine study I made plot for the High Concentration cohort alone.Forgive me for the low number of patients, but this all I can work with.

As you can see for yourself, the curve fitting produces curve of equal fidelity (R2=.9687) but the curve is polinomial not a straigth line. The line is fourth order polinomial (x^4) and the R2=.9963.

Now, draw a straigth line from the Highest Score to the Lowest.

The area above the red line is the therapeutic effect over the placebo straigth line. If the general shape holds for Phase 2b/3 Blarcamesine AD trial than the therapeutic effect is clearly there. Notice at the highest scores we have ceiling effect and that at Δ ΜΜSE 2.25 to 0 the effect is the greatest.

I realize that I get way over the head of an average investor. If you have any questions, please, leave comments. This is my children’s (youngest 16) mathematics and a bit of serendipity.

The spreadsheets can be provided upon requests, they are very simple. More Sh*t to come.


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One thought on “In Search of Therapeutic Effect Patterns In Simufilam, Blarcamesine and Approximation of Placebo. $SAVA $AVXL

  1. I very much appreciate the statistical analysis that you do. I know you put a lot of time into it.

    But I never quite understand what your conclusions are.

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